Will China Invade Taiwan?

One of the questions that is most discussed among the uncles at our coffeshops is: Will China invade Taiwan? If only we know the answer to the question: How much is China willing to risk? China’s leaders have repeatedly said 不惜一切代价.

During the Yuan Dynasty, historian Wang Da Yuan wrote that there were hardly any permanent Chinese residents on the Island and the interior was inhabited by cannibals.

The first permanent residents arrived with Zheng Cheng Gong who drove the Dutch out and held on to the island as the last bastion of the Ming Dynasty while Manchus ruled the mainland.

In 1683, the Zheng family surrendered to Emperor Kangxi’s forces and Taiwan came under the rule of the Qing Dynasty. In 1912, the Republic of China ROC took over.

In 1895, Japan occupied Taiwan after the Qing Dynasty lost the Sino Japanese war of 1894. After the Japanese surrendered at the end of WW2 in 1945, Taiwan was returned to the ROC government.

In 1949, the KMT that was ruling the whole of China including Taiwan was defeated in a civil war. Like Zheng Cheng Gong, the KMT fled to Taiwan. The communist rebels ruled the mainland. Instead of declaring themselves to be the new government of the ROC, they founded the People’s Republic of China PRC, effectively creating 2 Chinas.

The ROC in Taiwan was recognised as a country and was even a member of the UN until the US and it’s allies decided to recognise the PRC in 1971. Things began nervously at first; when Mao Zedong was still alive. Then Deng Xiaoping took over after Mao’s death in 1976. From then on, China began to open up and plug in to the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, the anti-West Sinophiles wanted so desperately to believe that China’s economic miracle is due entirely to the wisdom of Chinese leaders and ancestors dating back 5,000 years. In reality, China could never have lifted so many people out of poverty if not for the fact that it ad plugged itself into the system of world trade. Openness and integration into the Western capitalist system were key to the rise of the dragon. Without joining the WTO, China simply couldn’t have made it.

Next comes the point that many Westerners impressed with seemingly progressive China don’t understand. While China does not seem like another North Korea, it has a similar system of leadership that is lurking behind the facade of technocracy. 24 years since WTO, the technocrats an economists had been in the limelight. The most prominent characters published books and went on book tours all over the world, giving speeches and wowing the audiences. Jack Ma even met Donald Trump during his first term before Xi Jinping did. Somebody posted a message on social media saying that if there were elections in the PRC, Jack Ma would be president. For those who understand the CCP, it was an OMG moment.

While these prominent businessmen were indeed the pillars for the Chinese economy, their popularity was deemed an existential threat to the CCP leadership. These flamboyant and internationally respected folks made the CCP irrelevant. Something had to be done but how do you cook the goose and still have your golden eggs?

The narrative had to be changed in order for the people to see the importance of this white elephant. Without winning any popularity contest, Chinese leaders want its citizens to believe that the party is solely responsible for their improved lives. They insist that the people love the party and propagated the myth that any form of dissatisfaction stems from folks influenced by adversarial “Western media”. Any setback, including natural disasters would be attributed to attacks by foreigners and any Chinese person who stands against the party must be on the payroll of hostile foreign powers. None of that should fool any astute observer or reasoner, but it’s through censorship and educational brainwashing, it has created a cult of party worshippers. To sustain the cult, it must be fed with causes. What comes to mind? Taiwan. Suffice to say that if the party had continued to stay on the sidelines, allowing the technocrats to run the show and stay in the limelight, taking Taiwan by force will never be on the cards. Unfortunately, that trajectory will ultimately lead to the demise of the CCP.

Mao Zedong once said that he’s not afraid of nuclear war. If 300 million die, so be it, China still have 300 million (population 600 million then) and very soon, it will be 600 million again. No matter what happens to the common people, the party elite will always have a lion’s share of the country’s wealth. They are not worried (for themselves) that the country’s economy would be run into the ground. They are only concerned about their position as a defacto aristocratic class. Communism is a form of atheism that includes idol worship and there can only be one idol.

Will China invade Taiwan? The party has been preparing the people for it. Zero COVID measures with draconian isolation and testing, food distribution etc were a form of civil defence exercise. Of course, not every person in the CCP is a ruthless tyrant. There is rational camp and an irrational camp. The rational camp may include pro-Xi and anti-Xi people. The irrational camp may also include pro-Xi or anti-Xi people. The thing that defines the opposing camp? The rational camp rules out China invading Taiwan. The irrational camp doesn’t rule out China invading Taiwan. I believe the former greatly exceeds the latter. The majority don’t want war. But this is a dictatorship and ultimately the big boss decides. So which camp does the big boss belong in? Will China invade Taiwan? The answer probably lies in how the big boss has been treating his top military commanders.

In October 2025, the CCP expelled 9 senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers from both the party and the military in one of the most sweeping purges in decades. This action, announced just before the 4th Plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee (20-22 October 2025), targeted high-ranking officials accused of the usual “severe corruption”, including financial crimes involving “extremely large amounts of money” and “violations of party discipline”.

Only one promotion occurred at the Fourth Plenum: General Zhang Shengmin, a Rocket Force officer and anti-corruption enforcer, was elevated to CMC vice chairman, replacing He Weidong. I wonder who will replace General Zhang and when.

Some see the dismissals are part of Xi Jinping’s long-running anti-corruption campaign first launched in 2012. I don’t. The first wave of purges involved individuals loyal to Jiang Zemin. By 2025, those still in positions of authority or leadership were almost completely loyal to Xi. Many of the purged generals had been only recently promoted. Why were they found to be corrupt so soon and to such a shocking degree after their promotions? Weren’t they vetted and had their backgrounds thoroughly checked long before they were even considered for top military posts? These purges have effectively hollowed out the Central Military Commission (CMC), the PLA’s supreme command body, leaving it with only four members out of a typical seven, the highest vacancy rate since the Mao era. This give the big boss almost full control of the military. What do you think the reason for finding the generals corrupt could be? Because they are reluctant or even against invading Taiwan?

Will China invade Taiwan? It depends on whether the rational camp can rise and defeat the irrational camp. As it stands, the big boss is not very rational. He is not interested in the economy or the livelihood of the people. He wants absolute control and Taiwan must ne taken.