Will China Invade Taiwan?

One of the questions that is most discussed among the uncles at our coffeshops is: Will China invade Taiwan? If only we know the answer to the question: How much is China willing to risk? China’s leaders have repeatedly said 不惜一切代价. Why is China willing to risk “everything” to take Taiwan? Is it really just because of cultural integration?

Has Taiwan always been a part of China. This assumption is based on the fact that both sides speak the same language. How many generations do you need to achieve that? During the Yuan Dynasty, historian Wang Da Yuan wrote that there were hardly any permanent Chinese residents on the Island and the interior was inhabited by cannibals. Even the Mongol emperor couldn’t be bothered with the little island. It just wasn’t worth it.

The first permanent residents arrived with Koxinga 国姓爷 Zheng Cheng Gong 郑成功 who drove the Dutch out in 1661 and held on to the island as the last bastion of the Ming Dynasty while the Manchus swept over the mainland and established the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911).

Meanwhile, Taiwan would endure decades of infighting within the Zheng family after Zheng Cheng Gong died in 1662. In 1683, the Zheng family led by Koxinga’s grandson surrendered to Emperor Kangxi’s forces and Taiwan came under the rule of the Qing Dynasty.

In 1895, Japan occupied Taiwan after the Qing Dynasty lost the Sino Japanese war of 1894. China-made movies show Japan invading China. In reality, the two countries started off fighting over Korea. The Shimonoseki Treaty was signed. China gave up control over Korea and Taiwan.

Taiwan then came under Japanese rule for half a century. Meanwhile, on the mainland, the Qing Dynasty collapsed in 1911 and was succeeded by the nascent Republic of China ROC. After the Japanese surrendered at the end of WW2 in 1945, Taiwan was returned to the ROC government.

In 1949, the KMT that was ruling the whole of China including Taiwan was defeated in a civil war. Like Zheng Cheng Gong, the KMT fled to Taiwan. The communist rebels ruled the mainland. Instead of declaring themselves to be the new government of the ROC, they founded the People’s Republic of China PRC, effectively creating a second China.

The ROC in Taiwan was recognised as a country and was even a member of the UN until the US and its allies decided to recognise the PRC in 1971. China’s opening to the rest of the world began nervously at first; when Mao Zedong was still alive. Deng Xiaoping took over after Mao’s death in 1976 and from then on, China began to open up in earnest and plug in to the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, the anti-West Sinophiles have been wanting so desperately to believe that China’s economic miracle is due entirely to the wisdom of Chinese leaders and ancestors dating back 5,000 years. In reality, China could never have lifted so many people out of poverty if not for the fact that it had plugged itself into the established system of world trade. Openness and integration into the Western capitalist system were key to the rise of the dragon. Without joining the WTO, China simply couldn’t have made it. Without a capitalist system that exploits the cheap labour provided by its massive rural population, China couldn’t have come this far.

Next comes the point that many Westerners impressed with seemingly progressive China don’t understand. While China does not look anything like North Korea, it has a similar system of leadership that is lurking behind the facade of technocracy. For 24 years since WTO, the technocrats and economists had been in the limelight. The most prominent characters published books and went on seminars and book tours all over the world, giving speeches and wowing the audiences. Jack Ma even met Donald Trump during his first term before Xi Jinping did. Somebody posted a message on social media saying that if there were elections in the PRC, Jack Ma would be president. For those who understand the CCP, it was an OMG moment like what happened to Fa Lun Gong when its leader Li Hong Zhi claimed that he had more followers than the CCP.

While these prominent businessmen were indeed the pillars for the Chinese economy, their popularity was deemed an existential threat to the CCP leadership. These flamboyant and internationally respected folks made the CCP seem irrelevant. Something had to be done but how do you cook the goose and still have your golden eggs?

The narrative had to be changed in order for the people to see the importance of this white elephant. Without winning any popularity contest, Chinese leaders want its citizens to believe that the party is solely responsible for their improved lives. To keep 1.4 billion people on the same page, they insisted that Chinese society is inextricably tied to the CCP. The party propagated the myth that any form of dissatisfaction with the CCP has to stem from folks influenced by adversarial “Western media”. Any setback, including natural disasters would be attributed to attacks by foreigners and any Chinese person who stands against the party must be on the payroll of hostile foreign powers. None of that should fool any logical, reasoning person, but through censorship and educational brainwashing, it has created a cult of party worshippers. To sustain the cult, it must be fed with causes. What comes to mind? Taiwan – an unfinished business as far as the CCP is concerned.

Suffice to say that if the party had continued to stay on the sidelines, allowing the technocrats to run the show and steal the limelight, taking Taiwan by force will never be on the cards. No decent technocrat or intellectual will see any benefit in invading Taiwan. Unfortunately, if these pragmatic and reasonable folks were to continue to influence the economy and the administrative policies, the demise of the CCP will inevitably follow. Taiwan is a glaring example of how a Chinese democracy can thrive and for that, it will remain a thorn in the side of the CCP for as long as it is run independently. Bootlicking Taiwanese artists like Rainie Yang below had to go on mainland TV to claim that she was so poor when she was growing up in Taiwan that she could not afford seafood. Yet she could afford to have braces done.

For how long can people like Yang lie to the mainlanders? For how long can the truth be hidden from the people? If taking Taiwan is a prerequisite to CCP survival, what is the price? Mao Zedong once said that he’s not afraid of nuclear war. If 300 million die, so be it. China would still have 300 million (population 600 million then) and very soon, it will be 600 million again. No matter what happens to the common people, the party elite will always be well off. The party leaders are not worried (for themselves) that the country’s economy would be run into the ground. They are only concerned about their position as a defacto aristocratic class. Communism is a disguised form of atheism that includes idol worship and there can only be one idol.

Weapons check. Idol check. Will China invade Taiwan? Why not? The party has been preparing the people for it. Zero COVID measures with draconian isolation and forced testing, food distribution etc. These measures were a form of civil defence exercise in preparation for a wartime scenario. Of course, not every person in the CCP is a ruthless tyrant. There is a rational and compassionate camp and a tiny irrational bunch. The rational camp may include pro-Xi and anti-Xi people. The irrational bunch may also include pro-Xi or anti-Xi people. What defines the opposing sides? The rational camp rules out China invading Taiwan. The cost of subjugating Taiwan far outweighs the gains. These are the rational people and will always be the majority even in China. The irrational bunch are the crazy ones who really 不惜一切代价. I believe the former greatly exceeds the latter even though “patriotic” douyin videos may suggest otherwise. The majority don’t want war – especially if they have to fight it. But lest we forget, this is a dictatorship and ultimately the big boss decides. So which camp does the big boss belong in? Will China invade Taiwan? The answer probably lies in how the big boss has been treating his top military commanders.

In October 2025, the CCP expelled 9 senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers from both the party and the military in one of the most sweeping purges in decades. This action, announced just before the 4th Plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee (20-22 October 2025), targeted high-ranking officials accused of the usual “severe corruption”, including financial crimes involving “extremely large amounts of money” and “violations of party discipline”.

Only one promotion occurred at the Fourth Plenum: General Zhang Shengmin, a Rocket Force officer and anti-corruption enforcer, was elevated to CMC vice chairman, replacing He Weidong. I wonder who will replace General Zhang and when.

Some see the dismissals as part of Xi Jinping’s long-running anti-corruption campaign first launched in 2012. I don’t. The first wave of purges involved individuals loyal to Jiang Zemin. Sure, they were corrupt, but who wasn’t? They were punished because they were on the wrong side. By 2025, those still in positions of authority or leadership were almost completely loyal to Xi. Many of the purged generals had only been promoted recently. Why were they found to be corrupt so soon and to such a shocking degree after their promotions? Weren’t they vetted and had their backgrounds thoroughly checked long before they were even considered for top military posts? Obviously, corruption wasn’t the real problem. Absolute obedience is. Xi doesn’t want any military commanders to hesitate when ordered to pull the trigger. He doesn’t want a repeat of Xu Qinxian (1935-2021) – the heroic general of the PLA who disobeyed orders and refuse to shoot the students protesting on Tiananmen in May 1989. It’s quite likely that the generals lost their jobs when they showed hints of reluctance when war was mentioned. The big boss had to make sure that he did not have another Xu Qinxian or Zhao Ziyang!

These purges have effectively hollowed out the Central Military Commission (CMC), the PLA’s supreme command body, leaving it with only four members out of a typical seven, the highest vacancy rate since the Mao era. This gives the big boss practically full control of the military.

Will China invade Taiwan? It depends on whether the rational camp can rise and defeat the irrational ones at the crucial moment. As it stands, the big boss and other hardliners in the party are not very rational. He is not interested in the economy or the livelihood of the people. He has the continuing domination of the party at heart and to that end, Taiwan must be taken 不惜一切代价 at all cost.