Many people who have not been observing China for very long would be surprised that an intellectual like 任剑涛 could make such an incisive and prophetic speech back in 2012. The degree of intellectual freedom back then, even though it was not high, is nothing like the highly controlled environment that we see nowadays. That was why Prof Ren thought he could get away with it.
As it turned out, his lecture was banned. If he had said such things today, he would have been disappeared. He was spot on with his analysis of Xi’s Red Guard mentality. He accurately predicted that China would enter an era of regressive mafia rule and economic downturn. Perhaps the only thing he did not predict, is that a speech like the one he made here in 2012, would land him in serious trouble today. Back then, he believed that power struggle within the ranks of the CCP would be so intense that the authorities would have no time to deal with controversial speakers like him. Prof Ren has kept quiet every since. He is still lecturing Political Sciences in Qinghua University without daring to touch on the same subject again.
Salient points in Prof Ren’s lecture:
- From 1978, the then wavering CCP based their legitimacy on economic growth. China’s economic growth is based on investments, consumption and trade.
- China’s system of leadership succession is fraught with problems. People tend not to be too concerned about the current leadership as they hope for better successors.
- He mentioned that Deng Xiaoping’s reforms ensured that no leader could be in office for more than 2 terms. He praised this reform but did not predict that the incoming Xi would change it.
- Beijing alone had 3.7 million units of unoccupied real estate, many of which were bought by corrupt officials for speculative purposes which is why government is not taking action.
- 200 industries are controlled by 200 families. It is they and their internal agreement that will precipitate any reforms. Public policies become unrelated to public interest. Prof Ren did not see any new hope in Xi’s leadership. Those who did were naive.
- China will inch closer to anarchy and warmongering. Violent crimes go up. Prof Ren believed that based not on military prowess but on economy, sociopolitical structure, China will not survive a war.
- Many people back then believed that protesters convicted of rioting at Tiananmen 1989 would be forgiven by Xi because they thought he was an open-minded leader. Prof Ren held no such illusions.
There are of course, certain things that Prof Ren did not get right. He talked about an increasingly divided society. He underestimated the power of censorship, brainwashing and the income opportunities from patriotic videos on social media. Whether out of fear or genuine conviction, China is now more united in opinion than ever before.